My Fantasy Football Teams: Part 1

Well, all four of my fantasy football teams have made it to the post-season.  Two of the fantasy playoffs start this week and two begin next week.  As a result, I thought it would be worthwhile to posit some of my thoughts on starting line-ups for one of this week's playoff teams. I should probably note upfront that this post is not totally ad hoc/unedited.  I have been mulling over who to start on this fantasy football team for several days.  What might be refreshing/unique about this post is that it will provide readers with a real life fantasy footballs scenario.

My team is in a 10 team, non-PPR draft and play league; 8 of the teams make the playoffs.  I finished in 1st place in the league and am playing the 8th place team.  While that would normally be a good thing, in this match-up, I am likely the underdog.  The points system generally follows Yahoo's default settings with the exception that quarterbacks receive 6 points for each passing touchdown.

First off: here's a side by side comparison of the starting line-ups with the caveat that either of us might change a player or two by Sunday.

QB	Drew Brees (NO - QB)	@Ten	Sun 1:00 pm	23.77	0.00	QB	Aaron Rodgers (GB - QB)	Oak	Sun 4:15 pm	29.83	0.00
WR	Vincent Jackson (SD - WR)	Buf	Sun 4:15 pm	9.03	0.00	WR	Mike Wallace (Pit - WR)	Cle	W, 14-3	10.89	7.80
WR	Malcom Floyd (SD - WR)	Buf	Sun 4:15 pm	5.66	0.00	WR	Deion Branch (NE - WR)	@Was	Sun 1:00 pm	6.67	0.00
RB	DeMarco Murray (Dal - RB)	NYG	Sun 8:20 pm	13.11	0.00	RB	Chris Johnson (Ten - RB)	NO	Sun 1:00 pm	17.59	0.00
RB	Ray Rice (Bal - RB)	Ind	Sun 1:00 pm	24.36	0.00	RB	Roy Helu (Was - RB)	NE	Sun 1:00 pm	13.82	0.00
TE	Jimmy Graham (NO - TE)	@Ten	Sun 1:00 pm	9.85	0.00	TE	Jermichael Finley (GB - TE)	Oak	Sun 4:15 pm	7.25	0.00
W/R	Michael Bush (Oak - RB)	@GB	Sun 4:15 pm	12.27	0.00	W/R	DeAngelo Williams (Car - RB)	Atl	Sun 1:00 pm	7.13	0.00
K	Shaun Suisham (Pit - K)	Cle	W, 14-3	10.21	2.00	K	Sebastian Janikowski (Oak - K)	@GB	Sun 4:15 pm	7.41	0.00
DEF	Denver (Den - DEF)	Chi	Sun 4:05 pm	14.96	0.0	DEF	New York (NYJ - DEF)	KC	Sun 1:00 pm	12.48	0.00

As for my competitor, he doesn't really have any choices regarding who to start at qb, rb, def, or te.  He may choose to sub out Deion Branch for Robert Meacham or sub Meacham for DeAngelo Williams in the w/r spot.  He also has Vincent Brown on his bench; however, I doubt he will start him for obvious reasons (3rd wr on team that focuses on Floyd, Jackson, and Gates and running backs).

As for myself, I could have gone with either Matt Stafford (who is on my bench) or Drew Brees.  The latter qb has been the most consistent scorer for me this year and has outperformed Stafford almost every week regardless of match-up; therefore, I opted to go with Brees.  I think it unlikely that Brees will outscore Aaron Rogers; however, he might keep it close in that head to head match-up.

In respect to running backs, I had to choose between Ray Rice, Demarco Murray, Michael Bush, Toby Gerhart, Marion Barber, and Beanie Wells.  I eliminated Beanie Wells from consideration because he is going against the best run defense in the league this week.  I eliminated Marion Barber from consideration because I don't like the match-up against the Denver defense--especially considering Caleb Hanie's inability to focus a defense's attention on the pass.  Marion Barber will be running against 8-man fronts and bunched up secondaries all day; that is not a good situation for him.  I eliminated Toby Gerhart from consideration based somewhat on gut feelings; I just don't think he will perform well against Detroit's defense (even given the absence of Suh).

On the flip side, I decided to start Ray Rice (a "no brainer" IMO) because he is a) one of the top fantasy rb's in the league and b) he is running on one of the worst defenses in the league.  I worry about Michael Bush's production against Green Bay.  Will I see the Michael Bush that exploded for a lot of yards and a touchdown or two a few weeks ago, or will I get a repeat of last week's anemic performance.  I think it will partly depend on whether or not the Oakland offensive line improves its play from last week and partially on whether the Raiders can keep the score close.  That being said, I decided to run with Bush this week over the other choices on my bench.  I have some of the same issues with Murray (and he also has to fight off Felix Jones).  In Murray's case, I think that he will pick-up his run game this week for two reasons--a) the Giants run def. is not very good and b) his full back is returning to action.

I think that Ray Rice will be able to keep pace with Chris Johnson and Demarco Murray will score about the same number of points as Roy Helu.  I hope that I have an edge in the Bush v. Williams category; however, that is somewhat of a wild card.

I think that my strongest advantage vis-a-vis my competitor is in the wide receiver category.  I will take you through some of my thinking regarding this position.

At the start of the week, my fantasy roster contained Laurent Miles, Brandon Lloyd, and Vincent Jackson.  I decided to drop Laurent Miles when it became obvious that a) Miles Austin is playing this Sunday and b) Laurent Miles is dealing with an injury issue that may limit his playing time or on field effectiveness.  In his place I picked-up Malcolm Floyd.  I decided to start both Floyd and Jackson this week for several reasons. First, I don't like Brandon Lloyd's potential vs. a good Seattle defense knowing that Lloyd may be catching passes from the third string quarterback.  Second, I think (perhaps more like hope given San Diego's inconsistency) that the San Diego offensive will perform well against the fairly weak Buffalo passing defense, especially considering that the game will be played in warm weather (and not in cold, snowy Buffalo).  I think that one or maybe even both of my wide-outs will score a touchdown and one or both will exceed 100 yards receiving.

It is quite possible, though certainly not guaranteed, that my wide receivers will outscore his two wide-outs by 15 points or more.  This scenario is more likely given that Mike Wallace has already played and only scored 7.8.  I will need to win these two match-ups if I have any hope of beating my competitor this week, especially considering that my kicker only scored 2 points.  I am going to need to win the wr battle in order to offset what will likely be a 10-11 point differential in the kicking category.

I should have an advantage at the tight end position; however, that one is a real wildcard in my opinion, given the fact that Jermichael Finley has the potential to score a touchdown or two.

At the beginning of the week, my kicker was Robbie Gould.  I picked-up Gould a few weeks back and have had success using him until Jay Cutler injured his hand and Caleb Hanie took over the qb reins in Chicago.  After that point, Gould became more of a liability than an asset (3 points last week for instance).  I don't expect things to improve this week, so I cut Gould and added Shaun Suisham.  I had a choice between Suisham and Matt Prater (and other, weaker kickers); I chose Suisham based on his match-up with Cleveland and the fact that, over the course of the season, he has had more field goal opportunities.  While my thinking may (or may not) have been sound, my pick turned into a disaster, as he only scored 2 points.  Thank goodness than Mike Wallace (on my competitor's team) only scored 7.8; I would have been really feeling the heat if his touchdown catch had not been overturned.

I think our defenses are about equal with the wild-card being defensive touchdowns scored.

In conclusion, I think that I am a slight underdog this week.  I will need my two wide-outs to really perform well to have a chance to win this contest.  I will see what happens on Sunday!

***An update: I decided to switch out Malcolm Floyd and insert Brandon Lloyd earlier today after reading that Sean Bradford has a good chance of playing in Monday's game.