The Fiscal Cliff: Have We Been Here Before?

As we all know, the U.S. government is only a few days away from going over the fiscal cliff.  The fiscal cliff consists of a combination of mandatory spending cuts and tax increases.  Forbes estimates that the total in tax increases and spending cuts will siphon around $500 billion out of the economy in 2013 (Forbes estimates the spending cuts will be $109 billion).  That is a huge chunk of change and might be enough to cause the U.S. economy to go back into recession.  The key word being,"might."

Franklin D.Roosevelt, 1933 (3)

As a history buff, I wondered if the United States had been in this predicament before.  At some point in our past, did the federal government massively ramp up its budget in reaction to a severe economic downturn?  Did the president and Congress (perhaps fearing that the U.S. debt was too high to be sustainable) subsequently cut spending by a significant amount while at the same time raising taxes?

The answer to that question (or questions) is yes.  From 1933-1936, President Franklin Delano Roosevelt, working with Congress, spent heretofore unheard of amounts of federal money (at least during peace time) in an effort to ameliorate the effects of the Great Depression.  By 1937, the U.S. economy had improved markedly.  Some (perhaps even Roosevelt) believed that the depression was over.  Unemployment was still around 14% but was significantly lower than at the height of the crisis (when it may have been as high as 25%).  As important, factories were producing more than they had in 1929.  Roosevelt and Congress responded by cutting federal spending significantly.  In that same year, the U.S. government started collecting a new payroll tax to cover future Social Security payments (1).  Sound familiar?

The payroll tax increase and spending cuts almost certainly had a hand in derailing any gains the U.S. economy had made since 1933.  During the 1937-1938 "recession," the stock market tanked, production dropped off significantly, and unemployment went to 20% (2). 

The U.S. economy has changed markedly since 1937, and the Great Recession was not nearly as severe as the Great Depression.  Nonetheless, I think we can learn something about the ramifications of going over the fiscal cliff by looking at the causes of the 1937-1938 "recession."


1. McElvaine, R. S. (1984). The Great Depression: America, 1929-1941. New York: Times Books.
     pgs. 75, 297-298.
2. Ibid., 298-300.
3. Photo of Franklin D. Roosevelt.  Photographer is Elias Goldensky.  The photo was taken on Dec.
    27, 1933.  It is located on Wikimedia Commons and is in the public domain.

Thoughts on Newtown, the Fiscal Cliff, the Paranormal

I hope that everyone is enjoying the holidays.  I wanted to quickly post some of my thoughts on the ramifications of the Newtown shootings and the fiscal cliff imbroglio.  At the same time, I thought I would mention my M.A. thesis, which concerns the paranormal.

How Should We Respond to the Newtown Shootings

Immediately after the Newtown shootings, politicians, experts, and, for that matter, the public at large were clamoring for new laws to ensure that this tragic event was never repeated.  Sadly, it appears that these calls for reform have died down.  As so often happens, other events and happenings (cue the fiscal cliff) are starting to replaces Newtown in the public consciousness. 

I would assert that we shouldn't forget the shootings.  In fact, we should use them as motivation to address key concerns in our society.  I would also contend that we shouldn't focus on one issue.  The Newtown shootings point to numerous, potential flaws in our socio-economic structure revolving around bullying, parenting, lack of access to mental healthcare, guns, security, and school systems' missions, visions, and values.  Further, we will not get very far with many of these issues unless we approach them with an open mind.

If I were in a position of power (and I'm not), I would select a panel of experts and non-experts (with many more non-experts than experts).  I would ask them to explore a wide range of issues relating to the Newtown shootings.  Importantly, I would ask them to go into the process with open minds-to put any preconceived notions aside. Their motto would be "let the data guide."

The Fiscal Cliff

The fiscal cliff deadline is fast approaching.  Frankly, I do not expect the various parties to reach an agreement before January 1.  I think it is certainly possible (and even likely) that a fiscal cliff deal will pass the Senate; however, it is likely DOA in the House.  After his Plan B debacle, John Boehner can't afford to let bipartisan legislation clear the House until after the Jan. 3 speaker election.  I could be wrong on this one; let's wait and see.

The Paranormal

You might enjoy reading my M.A. thesis, which surveys Victorian America's attitudes to Spiritualism and the paranormal.  In the thesis, I focus on believers in the paranormal and look at some of the things these people hoped to gain by communing with the dead.  I do not (or try not to anyway) make any statements or claims regarding the existence (or lack thereof) of a supernatural world.  You can find it here: Why Did Post-Bellum America Fall in Love with Ghosts?

Happy Holidays! Enjoy these Photos

Happy Holidays everyone!  I've uploaded a  few photographs from Wikimedia Commons, which you might enjoy.  I didn't take any of these photos; all credit goes to the photographers (listed at the bottom of this blog post).

On a side note, I would encourage you to check out Wikimedia Commons. The site contains tons of free-to-use photos on a wide variety of topics.  Just make sure you follow the dictates of whichever license is in place (usually a Creative Commons license).

You might also enjoy reading this freelance article recalling my childhood Easter experiences.  Granted, it's not a Christmas story, but reading it might help you get in the mood to celebrate the holidays.

Once again, Happy Holidays!

Sneeuw-Weegje (1)

The Old Church Park in Helsinki, Finland (2)

An albino Barren Ground Caribou, Wagon Trails Animal Park. (3)

1. Photographer/Author: Dick Mudde. Date: Jan. 13, 2008. Public Domain: Yes
2. Photographer/Author: Lumijaguaari. Date: January 1, 2006. Public Domain: Yes, via a GNU Free Documentation License, Version 1.2 
3. Photographer/Author: Brian0918, Date: June 26, 2005?. Public Domain: Yes, via a
Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.5 Generic license.

My Fantasy Football Teams

For those of you who are wondering how my fantasy football teams are doing.  Two out of the three teams made the regular playoffs. One of those teams lost in the semifinals and one is playing in the finals.  The finals match-up is below (with the league and players' names redacted to protect my opponent's anonymity--my team is on the left).  

I think I have a good shot at winning it all in this league.  If I win this match-up, my record over the last four years will be: 7 Leagues --> 3 1st place finishes, 3 3rd/4th place finishes, 1 10th place finish.